Sweetie Jar
Inventory Note
The exact answer isn’t always the best answer.
The inventory sheet for this task was surprisingly short.
It simply said:
Jar 14
Count the sweeties.
“That sounds easy,” said Lyra.
“Too easy,” said Orin, raising an eyebrow.
Too easy usually meant trouble.
Regardless, Zia led the way and followed the inventory map until they reached Zone F. Sitting on its own special shelf was a giant glass jar.
And by giant, I mean giant. It was even taller than Zia.
Inside were hundreds and hundreds of brightly coloured sweeties: red sweeties, blue sweeties, green sweeties, yellow sweeties, stripy sweeties, and swirly sweeties.
Lyra stared at the jar.
“Oh boy,” she said. “Not that easy then. How many do you think there are?”
Zia pressed her face close to the glass and squinted. “At a guess, I’d say about three hundred and fifty.”
Orin looked personally offended by the word guess.
“More than that,” he said. “Based on my careful observations, there are at least four hundred.”
Lyra tilted her head, looking from the top of the jar to the bottom. “I’d say… maybe three hundred and eighty.”
Smudge appeared beside them.
“Three.”
The trio looked at him.
“Three?” asked Lyra.
“Possibly four,” said Smudge.
He was holding a handful of sweeties.
“Please put those back,” said Orin.
Smudge looked disappointed. Then the sweeties disappeared into his pocket.
“Inventory reasons,” said Smudge.
Wasting no more time, the trio began counting. Unfortunately, counting hundreds of sweeties inside a giant jar turned out to be much harder than it sounded.
The sweeties were all stacked on top of each other. Some were hiding at the bottom. Some were pressed against the glass. Some looked like two sweeties but were actually one very lumpy sweetie. Some looked like one sweetie but were actually many.
Lyra counted first.
“Three hundred and eighty-two,” she said.
Orin went second.
“Three hundred and seventy-four,” he said.
Zia went last.
“Three hundred and seventy-five,” she said.
“Interesting,” said Orin. “How can they all be different?”
“Maybe we made mistakes,” suggested Lyra.
And so they counted again.
Lyra counted three hundred and seventy-two.
Orin counted three hundred and seventy-one.
Zia counted three hundred and seventy-six.
“That’s odd,” said Lyra.
“Very odd,” agreed Zia.
There was silence for a moment as they pondered the situation—a silence which was broken by the sound of loud chewing.
Everyone turned.
Smudge was standing beside the jar, chewing slowly and rather suspiciously. Even more suspiciously, he had his hand in the jar.
“What?” asked Smudge.
“Are you eating the inventory?” asked Orin.
Smudge thought about this.
“Define inventory,” he said.
“The sweeties,” said Orin.
Smudge swallowed.
“Honestly, this is not how it looks,” said Smudge.
Except it was exactly how it looked.
The trio looked at the jar. Then at Smudge. Then at the jar again.
Zia sighed. “We’re never going to get the same answer, are we?”
“Nope,” said Orin. “Not with Sweetie Man around.”
Smudge looked as if he had suddenly become very interested in the ceiling.
The trio thought about this for a while. Even if they counted perfectly, the answer might not stay true for very long. Not even by the time they wrote it down.
“What do we do then?” asked Lyra.
“How about this?” said Zia. “We make our best estimate and put that on the inventory sheet.”
Orin gasped and looked up sharply.
“An estimate? On an inventory sheet?”
Smudge looked from Zia to Orin.
“What’s an estimate?” he asked.
“It’s a sensible almost-answer,” said Zia. “Not just a wild guess. You use what you know and get as close as you can.”
Orin looked at the jar. Then at Smudge.
“I dislike this, but I think you might be right,” he said.
They looked at their numbers. Some were higher. Some were lower. None of them matched exactly, but most of them were around the same place. Sort of.
“Three hundred and eighty-two, three hundred and seventy-four, three hundred and seventy-five,” said Lyra.
“Then three hundred and seventy-two, three hundred and seventy-one, and three hundred and seventy-six,” said Orin.
He tapped his pencil against the inventory sheet. “They’re mostly around three hundred and seventy-five.”
“So we write about three hundred and seventy-five?” asked Lyra.
“Approximately,” said Zia.
Orin wrote:
Jar 14: approximately 375 sweeties.
He was about to write the date, then paused.
“How long will that last, though?”
Everyone looked at the jar.
Then everyone looked at Smudge.
Smudge was holding another sweetie.
“What?” he said. “I can’t help myself, okay?”
“If the number keeps changing,” Orin continued, “then our estimate won’t stay useful forever.”
“That’s very true,” said Lyra.
“I guess it depends how quickly they are disappearing,” said Zia.
The trio looked at Smudge’s hand.
“How many sweeties are in one Smudge handful?” asked Orin.
Smudge looked down.
“Not enough,” he said.
They made him open his hand. There were, indeed, three sweeties in it.
“So one Smudge handful is about three sweeties,” said Lyra.
“Good,” said Orin. “Approximately three sweeties are going missing from the jar every time Smudge goes near it.”
“How often do you go near the jar?” asked Zia.
Smudge thought about this.
“Once a day,” he said.
The trio stared at him.
“Maybe twice,” said Smudge.
The trio kept staring.
“Okay,” said Lyra. “Let’s use three.”
And on that basis, they made their best guess.
If Smudge ate three handfuls a day, that would be about nine sweeties gone each day. In one week, that would be about sixty-three sweeties.
“So next week,” said Lyra, “there might be about three hundred and twelve sweeties left.”
“Next month?” asked Zia.
“One hundred and five,” Orin said immediately.
Zia and Lyra looked at Orin in slight amazement.
Orin shrugged. “I like maths.”
“Next year?” asked Lyra.
“Almost certainly none,” said Orin.
“Maybe some,” said Zia, “if someone moves the jar.”
“Or hides it,” said Lyra.
“Or locks it in a cupboard,” said Orin.
Smudge looked offended.
“I think you’re underestimating my self-control.”
At that exact moment, he ate another sweetie.
“We’ll assume none,” said Lyra.
“Definitely none,” agreed Orin.
With a firm nod, he completed the inventory sheet:
Jar 14
Current estimate: approximately 375 sweeties.
Warning: estimate changes over time.
Assumption: one Smudge = about 9 sweeties per day.
Next week: about 312.
Next month: about 105.
Next year: none, unless drastic anti-Sweetie Man measures are taken.
Behind them, Smudge continued his important inventory work.
Mostly by making sure the sweeties still tasted the same.
Looking Back
In this story, the team had to use approximation.
Approximation means making a careful estimate when an exact answer is hard to find, or when the exact answer will not stay exact for very long.
It is not a wild guess. It is not closing your eyes and saying the first number that falls out of your head. Approximation means using what you know to get close enough for the job.
The job looked simple at first. The sweeties in Jar 14 needed counting. That was all.
Unfortunately, Jar 14 was full of hundreds of sweeties, and they weren’t sitting neatly in rows like sensible inventory items.
Some were hiding. Some were squashed together. Some looked like one sweetie. Some looked like two.
And then there was Smudge.
Smudge was making the number change.
The exact answer would only be best if it stayed exact. But when the number is hard to count, or when the number keeps changing, sometimes the best answer isn’t the perfect answer.
Sometimes the best answer is the useful one.
Smudge’s Takeaway
When the exact number is uncertain or changes, make a careful estimate.
Concept Check
Circle the best answer for each question.
Which sentence best describes approximation?
- Making a careful estimate when an exact answer is hard to find.
- Saying any number that pops into your head.
- Counting forever, even when the answer keeps changing.
When is approximation useful?
- When you do not want to think at all.
- When Smudge has hidden the clipboard.
- When the exact number is hard to count or keeps changing.
In which situation would an estimate be most appropriate?
- Working out roughly how many people are in a large crowd.
- Checking that every child has returned from a school trip.
- Entering the correct code to open a locked door.
How sure are you?
- I understand it well.
- I mostly understand it.
- I want to read the story again.
Try It
Uh oh.
Another jar has arrived in the warehouse.
JAR 15
It too is full of sweeties.
Unfortunately, Smudge has noticed. And he is circling the jar.
He says he is “only looking,” but Lyra is not convinced.
Can you estimate how many sweeties are in Jar 15 before they start disappearing?
Look carefully at the jar. Don’t count every sweetie one by one. That would take too long, and Smudge is already getting closer.
Try using a quicker method. You might count one small section, then use that to estimate the whole jar. Or you might look for groups, layers, rows, or patterns that help you make a careful estimate.
Your Grid Fragment
That’s the Sweetie Jar job complete. The exact number may have wriggled around, but the careful estimate did its job.
Now you’re ready to collect your fragment and add it to your grid.
- Do you know what it is yet?
- Can you guess what it might become?
- What makes you think that?
Choose Next Story
Where Next?
Anywhere you like! Choose your next story from the grid.
Finished all nine warehouse jobs? Then you’re ready for The Symbol chapter.